Population Models and Disease Dynamics

With Matthew Ferrari (PSU Biology) and Kirsten Eilertson (PSU Statistics), we are developed dynamic models for country wide dynamics of measles to facilitate immunization programs at the WHO and GAVI. For the WHO, we developed statistical methods to fit these dynamic models in order to predict and confirm case numbers for particular countries. With GAVI, we created predictive models to more efficiently use scarce vaccination resources. Chen Shi, a graduate student in Entomology, also worked on an earlier iteration of this project. I am currently working with a recently graduate from ASU on updating this measles work with a Bayesian approach, and we have been working on methodology for disease spread from a reservoir when disease incidence is low.

With Mary Poss (PSU Biology) and several other collaborators, we worked to model an in vitro system of epithelial cells which are infected with Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV). We developed spatial point process models to explore the dynamics of this system to understand the spatial interactions between cells which are infected with different strains of a virus.

• Estimation and prediction for a mechanistic model of measles transmission using particle filtering and maximum likelihood estimation. w Kirsten E Eilertson, Matthew J Ferrari
• Stochastic Population Models w Ephraim Hanks
• An attraction-repulsion point process model for respiratory syncytial virus infections w Joshua Goldstein, Murali Haran, Ivan Simeonov, Francesca Chiaromonte
• Assessment of the 2010 global measles mortality reduction goal: results from a model of surveillance data w Emily Simons, Matthew Ferrari, Kathleen Wannemuehler, Abhijeet Anand, Marta Gacic-Dobo, Tony Burton, Peter Strebel
• Exploratory Spatial Analysis of in vitro Respiratory Syncytial Virus co-infections
  w Ivan Simeonov, Xiaoyan Gong, Oekyung Kim, Mary Poss, and Francesca Chiaromonte
• Tracking Measles Infection through Non-linear State Space Models
  w Matthew Ferrari and Chen Shi
• A Stochastic Richardson’s Arms Race Model
  w Randall Swift
• A Stochastic Richardson’s Arms Race Model
  Master’s Thesis